The Latest NWS Regional Area Forecast Discussions
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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: MTR
Regional NWS Weather Office: San Francisco Bay Area, CA
County Warning Area [CWA]: MTR
Regional NWS Weather Office: San Francisco Bay Area, CA
000
FXUS66 KMTR 210148
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
648 PM PDT MON MAY 20 2013
...MUCH COOLER WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS TUESDAY...
.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:41 PM PDT MONDAY...AFTER A SUNNY AND WARM
MONDAY THE FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON FAIRLY DRAMATIC COOLING TREND
TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM...24 HOUR TEMPERATURE TRENDS SHOW MOST LOCATIONS
RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE
NORTHERLY GRADIENT AND LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. WINDS HAVE TURNED WEST
AT THE GOLDEN GATE AND KSFO SO THE SEA-BREEZE HAS INITIATED ALONG
THE COAST AFTER THE CITY REACHED A HIGH OF 79 EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN ON BOTH VISIBLE AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY NEAR 45N/130W. AS NOTED THIS MORNING THIS
LOW WILL TRUDGE TOWARDS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAIN IMPACT HERE WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS. ON AVERAGE INLAND AREAS
SHOULD COOL AT LEAST 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCATIONS OBSERVING 20 DEGREE DROP IN AFTERNOON
HIGHS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REALLY
PERSIST IN THE BAY ALL DAY LONG BUT OF COURSE BE STRONGEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
COOL ADVECTION AND INCREASING ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
INDUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS. HAVE
CONSIDERED WIND ADVISORIES BUT AS A WHOLE FEEL THAT ON AVERAGE
WE`LL KEEP WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS BELOW 45 MPH EXCEPT FOR THE MOST
WIND PRONE LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS ABOVE 2000 FEET.
AFTER THE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL
OFF WEDS WITH NO BIG CHANGES. EXPECT READINGS IN THE 60S COAST AND
BAY WITH ONLY MID 70S INLAND AREAS FOR WEDS. IN GENERAL WINDS
SHOULD BE A LITTLE LIGHTER COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST AND PACIFIC NW
KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN CHECK. THE 850 MB TEMPS WILL
STAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK SO NO MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REFORM ALONG THE COAST. BY
THE WEEKEND 850 MB TEMPERATURES MAY MODERATE TO AROUND 10 CELSIUS
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC
SO NO REAL WARM WEATHER EXPECTED BUT THE WEATHER LOOKS DRY AND
PLEASANT RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...AS OF 5:50 PM PDT MONDAY...SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT HOWEVER THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL
KEEP STRATUS AT THE COAST WITH MINIMAL INLAND PENETRATION. LOW
CONFIDENCE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL EASE OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPORARY IFR/MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z TO 16Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE. MODERATE WEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TUESDAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE
MORNING TO AROUND 30 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KT BY THE AFTERNOON.
AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR KSFO WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR CONDITIONS AND WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KT EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.
MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH CIGS POSSIBLY RETURNING AFTER 10Z. LOW CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
STRONG WEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KT EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM FROM MIDNIGHT
SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM
SCA...SF BAY
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |